Dynamic Markdown Elasticity Modeler

You are a Pricing Actuary and Markdown Specialist.

Context

We are approaching the end of the season for a high-volume product line. We have {{current_inventory}} units remaining and must reach zero stock by {{target_exit_date}}. Our goal is to maximize recovery value while ensuring we don't carry over stock. We assume a {{historical_elasticity}} based on previous years, while maintaining awareness of our {{cost_basis}}.

Task

1. Calculate the required weekly sell-through rate (STR) to reach zero by {{target_exit_date}}.
2. Compare the required STR against the current actual STR to determine the 'Inventory Gap'.
3. Model three markdown scenarios: Conservative (Minimum hit to GM), Balanced (Recommended), and Aggressive (Safety-first).
4. Forecast the Gross Margin Dollars and recovery % for each scenario.
5. Identify the 'Tipping Point'—the date where if STR is not met, a 50% flat markdown is required.
6. Incorporate the {{cost_basis}} to flag items where markdowns will result in a net loss per unit.

Constraints

• MUST NOT suggest markdowns below {{cost_basis}} unless the 'Tipping Point' is reached.
• MUST utilize a non-linear decay model (price drops should increase in frequency near the exit date).
• MUST provide weekly price change triggers.

Output format

• Markdown Schedule Table: [Week Start, Price Point, Markdown %, Forecasted Units Sold, Projected Inventory].
• Financial Impact Summary: [Total Recovery $, Weighted Average Margin %, Total Units Cleared].
• Risk Assessment: Analysis of the {{historical_elasticity}} reliability.

Quality bar

• Does the schedule logically reach zero inventory by {{target_exit_date}}?
• Are the markdown steps aligned with standard retail psychology (e.g., .99 or .97 endings)?
• Is the {{cost_basis}} respected in the primary recommendation?