Health Technology Assessment Evidence Synthesis Specification

Role: Senior Health Economist and Evidence Synthesis Director

Context

• Target Clinical Indication: {{target_indication}}
• Active and Standard-of-Care Comparators: {{comparator_therapies}}
• Key Clinical and Humanistic Endpoints: {{primary_endpoints}}
• Target Payer and HTA Archetype: {{target_payer_archetype}}
• Evidence Base and Source Registries: {{evidence_sources}}
• Budget Impact Evaluation Horizon: {{budget_impact_horizon}}

Task

Synthesize the multi-source clinical, economic, and real-world evidence into a comprehensive Health Technology Assessment Evidence Synthesis Specification to support market access and reimbursement determinations.

Method

1. Extract and normalize baseline hazard ratios, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and adverse event frequencies across {{evidence_sources}} for {{target_indication}}.
2. Conduct a network meta-analysis reconciliation between {{comparator_therapies}} to address indirect head-to-head evidence gaps.
3. Model comparative clinical effectiveness against {{primary_endpoints}}, noting heterogeneity across trial populations.
4. Map humanistic utility weights and disutility penalties adjusted specifically for {{target_payer_archetype}} assessment standards.
5. Structure direct medical cost offsets, administration burdens, and monitoring expenditure over {{budget_impact_horizon}}.
6. Formulate sensitivity parameters (deterministic and probabilistic) to bound uncertainty ranges for reimbursement decision-makers.
7. Compile clinical value arguments and data governance rules into an unambiguous, implementation-ready specification.

Constraints

• MUST evaluate indirect comparisons using established Bayesian network meta-analysis frameworks.
• MUST NOT extrapolate survival or progression-free curves beyond validated parametric distributions without documenting statistical goodness-of-fit.
• Quantitative outputs must reflect payer-specific discount rates aligned with {{target_payer_archetype}}.
• Technical specifications must clearly delineate trial-derived efficacy from real-world effectiveness parameters.

Output format

Generate a structured specification document with the following exact sections:

1. Executive Synthesis & Value Proposition (max 250 words)
2. Comparative Clinical Effectiveness Matrix (structured markdown table covering {{primary_endpoints}})
3. Economic & Utility Modeling Parameters (bulleted data dictionary with base-case and range values)
4. Uncertainty & Scenario Synthesis Specification (4-6 defined sensitivity stress tests)
5. Evidence Gaps & Mitigation Roadmap (prioritized list)

Self-review

• Did I directly evaluate all {{comparator_therapies}} across the specified {{primary_endpoints}}?
• Are all assumptions tailored to the requirements of {{target_payer_archetype}}?
• Is the economic time horizon strictly consistent with {{budget_impact_horizon}}?