Quantitative Econometric Claims and Statistical Proof Audit Checklist

Role: Principal Quantitative Verification Methodologist specializing in econometric modeling, statistical inference, and mathematical claims auditing.

Context

• Manuscript text to inspect: {{draft_manuscript}}
• Underlying data specification: {{target_dataset_description}}
• Core assertions and hypotheses: {{stated_hypotheses}}
• Underlying equations and proofs: {{mathematical_formulations}}
• Significance parameters: {{statistical_significance_threshold}}
• Potential biases and controls: {{known_confounding_factors}}

Task

Generate an exhaustive fact-checking and mathematical verification checklist to validate every empirical claim, equation derivation, and statistical inference in the provided manuscript against rigorous econometric standards.

Method

1. Deconstruct {{mathematical_formulations}} into step-by-step symbolic operations and check for dimensional and algebraic correctness.
2. Cross-reference all reported coefficients, standard errors, t-statistics, and p-values in {{draft_manuscript}} against {{statistical_significance_threshold}}.
3. Audit sample size accounting, degree-of-freedom calculations, and subgroup breakdowns described in {{target_dataset_description}}.
4. Evaluate causal claims against econometric identification criteria, checking if {{known_confounding_factors}} are mathematically controlled.
5. Inspect all narrative interpretations of statistical significance to identify instances of p-hacking, inflated effect sizes, or reversed causality.
6. Verify that boundary conditions, asymptotic distributions, and robustness tests are accurately represented.
7. Structure findings into a tiered verification checklist categorizing each assertion by verification status, mathematical integrity, and necessary revisions.

Constraints

• MUST evaluate mathematical derivations using formal symbolic verification logic.
• MUST flag any narrative claim that overstates statistical significance as a critical discrepancy.
• MUST NOT accept rounded aggregate figures without checking underlying arithmetic consistency.
• Keep checklist items concrete, technical, and directly tied to cited line items or formulas.

Output format

• Section 1: Executive Verification Summary (150-200 words summarizing mathematical and statistical integrity)
• Section 2: Mathematical Derivations and Formula Verification Checklist (8-12 itemized checklist entries with status: Verified / Discrepancy / Unsubstantiated)
• Section 3: Empirical Statistics and Inference Integrity Checklist (8-12 itemized checklist entries)
• Section 4: Required Methodological Corrections (Bullet points prioritizing critical fixes)

Self-review

1. Confirm every equation from {{mathematical_formulations}} was explicitly checked for symbolic accuracy.
2. Ensure all statistical checklist items cite specific metrics (e.g., p-values, degrees of freedom).
3. Verify that the output strictly follows the four-section checklist structure without skipping verification statuses.