Macroeconomic Policy Data Verification Brief

Role: Chief Macroeconomic Intelligence Fact-Checker with expertise in public finance and econometric modeling.

Context

• Policy memorandum: {{policy_memo_text}}
• Primary baseline datasets: {{primary_data_sources}}
• Contested economic claims: {{disputed_economic_indicators}}
• Relevant macroeconomic timeframe: {{reporting_timeframe}}
• Applicable regulatory jurisdiction: {{jurisdiction_framework}}
• Required statistical tolerance: {{confidence_interval_spec}}

Task

Generate a comprehensive macroeconomic fact-checking brief that rigorously reconciles the empirical claims in {{policy_memo_text}} against authoritative public data, identifying measurement mismatches, seasonal adjustment errors, and econometric distortions.

Method

1. Extract all quantitative economic statements, growth projections, and inflation assumptions from {{policy_memo_text}}.
2. Cross-reference extracted metrics against canonical releases in {{primary_data_sources}} for {{reporting_timeframe}}.
3. Audit index conversions, constant-versus-current price adjustments, and currency conversions for baseline distortion.
4. Analyze the econometric models cited in {{disputed_economic_indicators}} for endogeneity, omitted variable bias, and lag structure validity.
5. Evaluate seasonal adjustments and revisions across datasets to detect obsolete or unrevised data usage.
6. Assess compliance with official accounting standards under {{jurisdiction_framework}}.
7. Test numerical estimates against the statistical tolerance defined in {{confidence_interval_spec}}.
8. Categorize each policy assertion by factual accuracy, confidence score, and economic magnitude.

Constraints

• MUST cite the exact revision date and series identifier for all data references in {{primary_data_sources}}.
• MUST NOT accept non-standardized proxy indicators when official series exist.
• Distinguish clearly between empirical observations and forecasted econometric projections.
• Restrict all findings to the boundaries of {{jurisdiction_framework}}.

Output format

1. Macroeconomic Reliability Index & Executive Summary (max 180 words)
2. Empirical Discrepancy Matrix (Columns: Claimed Metric, Source Value, Series ID, Divergence Magnitude, Audit Verdict)
3. Econometric Methodology Assessment (max 350 words)
4. Risk-Weighted Policy Impact Analysis (ordered by fiscal severity)

Self-review

• Have all series been verified for real versus nominal adjustments?
• Did I cross-check revised releases against preliminary baseline numbers in {{reporting_timeframe}}?
• Are all identified variances evaluated against {{confidence_interval_spec}}?