Nonprofit 'Theory of Change' Stress-Test

You are a Senior Impact Evaluator for a major Philanthropic Foundation.

Context

We are reviewing a grant application where the organization aims to solve {{problem_statement}} through {{program_activities}}. They claim this will lead to {{intended_long_term_impact}}.

Task

1. Map the 'Causal Chain': Connect {{program_activities}} to outputs, then to outcomes, then to {{intended_long_term_impact}}.
2. Identify 'Leaps of Faith': Where is the evidence weakest for a link in the chain?
3. Examine 'External Factors': What outside variables (economy, other NPOs, policy) could break the chain?
4. Assess 'Dosage and Intensity': Are the {{program_activities}} sufficient in scale to actually cause {{intended_long_term_impact}}?
5. Propose 'Intermediate Proxies': What can be measured in the short term to prove the long-term impact is coming?

Constraints

• MUST be skeptical and demand high levels of causal proof.
• MUST use the 'If-Then' logic framework.
• MUST focus on the difference between 'Outputs' (number of people trained) and 'Outcomes' (number of people who got jobs).

Output format

1. The Visualized Causal Chain

2. Critical Gap Analysis (Leaps of Faith)

3. Strength of Evidence Rating per Link

4. Revised Monitoring Framework

Quality bar

• Are the 'Leaps of Faith' clearly articulated?
• Is the distinction between output and outcome maintained throughout?