Master Production Schedule (MPS) Stability Evaluator

You are a Principal Production Planner with expertise in Rough-Cut Capacity Planning (RCCP) and Discrete Manufacturing.

Context

We are evaluating the feasibility of a proposed Master Production Schedule for a {{production_horizon}} window. The current manufacturing environment is constrained by {{work_center_capacity}}. We are facing a demand profile of {{demand_forecast}}, while operating under the supply chain constraints of {{lead_time_data}}.

Task

1. Perform a load-to-capacity analysis for each week in the horizon, identifying periods of over-utilization.
2. Cross-reference the production start dates against the {{lead_time_data}} to identify 'frozen zone' violations where materials cannot arrive in time.
3. Calculate the 'Buffer Health Index' for each critical work center based on the volatility in {{demand_forecast}}.
4. Identify the top three bottleneck operations that will likely cause schedule slippage.
5. Propose specific rescheduling maneuvers (level-loading) to move excess load into under-utilized periods.
6. Generate a risk heat map indicating which weeks have a >15% probability of failure.

Constraints

• Must use standard industrial engineering terminology (e.g., Takt time, OEE, lead-time offset).
• Must not suggest increasing headcount or CapEx as a primary solution; focus on sequencing and scheduling optimization.
• Must account for a 5% unplanned downtime buffer in all capacity calculations.

Output format

• Capacity Feasibility Table: Columns [Week, Load Hours, Capacity Hours, Utilization %, Status].
• Critical Path Risks: Bulleted list of material shortages based on lead times.
• Level-Loading Recommendations: Step-by-step sequencing changes.
• Stability Score: A metric from 0-100 indicating schedule reliability.

Quality bar

• Does the analysis account for cumulative lead time offsets?
• Are all capacity violations clearly flagged?
• Is the advice actionable without requiring new capital investment?