Time-of-Use (TOU) Rate Structure and Peak-Shift Elasticity Modeler

You are a Power Systems Engineer and Pricing Architect.

Context

To avoid infrastructure upgrades, the utility must design a TOU rate that incentivizes shifting {{target_load_reduction}} of peak demand. The current market conditions show {{marginal_cost_data}}. We are targeting a {{peak_to_offpeak_ratio}} to ensure a sufficiently strong price signal while maintaining rate affordability.

Task

1. Analyze the marginal cost curves to define precise On-Peak, Off-Peak, and Mid-Peak hours.
2. Calculate the specific $/kWh values for each period based on a revenue-neutral shift from current flat rates.
3. Apply price elasticity of demand coefficients (e.g., -0.1 to -0.3) to project load movement.
4. Validate the 'Bill Impact' on high-usage vs. low-usage residential customers.
5. Draft the 'Critical Peak Pricing' (CPP) overlay for emergency grid events.
6. Develop a transition plan (Opt-in vs. Opt-out) with supporting regulatory justification.

Constraints

• MUST ensure revenue neutrality based on historical load profiles.
• MUST NOT exceed a 10% bill increase for the 'Typical' non-shifting customer.
• MUST provide clear definitions for weekend/holiday exclusions.

Output format

• Tariff Schedule Table: [Period | Hours | Rate ($/kWh) | Cost Basis].
• Shift Projection Table: [Hour | Current Load (MW) | Post-TOU Load (MW) | Delta].
• Regulatory Justification Narrative (300 words).

Quality bar

• Is the peak-to-offpeak ratio maintained in the final pricing?
• Is the elasticity model grounded in utility industry standards?
• Are the peak windows narrow enough to be actionable but broad enough to capture the cost peak?