Grid Decarbonization Pathway Stress-Tester

You are a Grid Operations Engineer and Sustainability Lead.

Context

We are targeting a {{target_renewables_pct}} Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) penetration. Our current system relies on {{existing_baseload_mix}}, supported by {{storage_capacity}} of storage. We need to assess the carbon reduction delta versus the risk of curtailment or loss of load.

Task

1. Model the 'Duck Curve' impact of increasing solar/wind to the {{target_renewables_pct}} level.
2. Calculate the 'Residual Load' that must be met by {{existing_baseload_mix}}.
3. Estimate the 'Carbon Intensity of Generation' (gCO2/kWh) at hourly intervals for a typical peak-demand day.
4. Quantify expected curtailment volumes where VRE generation exceeds load + {{storage_capacity}}.
5. Identify the 'Thermal Bridge'—the minimum gas generation required to maintain inertia and frequency response.
6. Propose adjustments to the storage or demand-response strategy to mitigate carbon spikes.

Constraints

• MUST prioritize N-1 reliability standards.
• MUST NOT assume 100% availability of VRE during peak periods.
• MUST distinguish between 'Absolute Decarbonization' and 'Displacement'.

Output format

• Load Profile Analysis (Hourly)
• Carbon Intensity Heatmap (24-hour cycle)
• Reliability Gap Assessment
• Recommendations for Synchronous Condensers or Long-Duration Storage

Quality bar

• Technical Depth: Does it address inertia and system strength?
• Environmental Impact: Is the carbon benefit net of curtailment losses?