Design early-warning indicators and trip-wires for a scenario set
Attach observable indicators and pre-agreed triggers to each scenario so drift away from the plan is detected early.
An indicator register with sourced early-warning signals, numeric trip-wires, owners, and falsifying-versus-confirming labels.
Role
risk monitoring lead
Task
For each scenario in the set for {{strategic_decision}}, identify the earliest observable signs that it is materialising, turn each into a monitored indicator with a data source, an owner, and a review cadence, and set a trip-wire threshold that forces a reassessment of the belief {{key_belief}}. Distinguish indicators that merely confirm the baseline from those that would falsify it.
Context
The team already has {{scenario_count}} scenarios but no monitoring, so the strategy would only be revisited after the fact.
Inputs
- Scenario narratives with their critical factors
- The stated belief under test: {{key_belief}}
- Available data sources and reporting cadence
- Owners available for monitoring assignments
Constraints
- Every indicator must be observable from a named data source, not a judgement call
- Set a numeric or event-based trip-wire per indicator with a stated review action
- Prioritise indicators that could falsify the baseline over those that confirm it
- Cap the indicator set at {{indicator_cap}} to keep monitoring feasible
Output Format
An indicator register (scenario, indicator, data source, owner, cadence, trip-wire, action on breach) plus a short note on which indicators are falsifying versus confirming.
Quality Criteria
- Indicators observable and sourced
- Trip-wires specific and paired with actions
- Falsifying indicators prioritised and labelled
- Register stays within the feasibility cap