Build a scenario set from an importance-uncertainty ranking
Generate a small set of plausible external futures anchored on the factors that are both important and uncertain.
A ranked driving-factor table with selected critical uncertainties and a named scenario set including a baseline continuation.
Role
strategic foresight facilitator
Task
For the decision {{strategic_decision}} facing {{organisation_type}} over {{time_horizon}}, list ten to twenty external driving factors, rank each on importance and on uncertainty, select the factors that are high on both, and build {{scenario_count}} scenarios in which those factors resolve differently. Include one scenario that is the straight-line continuation of current expectations, name each scenario memorably, and for each ask what would have to be true for it to happen.
Context
The current strategy assumes a continuation of present trends and leadership has not stress-tested that assumption.
Inputs
- The decision at stake: {{strategic_decision}}
- Current strategic assumptions and stated vision
- Time horizon: {{time_horizon}}
- Known external trends and constraints
Constraints
- Restrict factors to external forces, not internal resource choices
- Rank on both axes and show why the selected factors sit high on each
- Produce exactly {{scenario_count}} scenarios, one of which continues current expectations
- Make the non-baseline scenarios uncomfortable for the current strategy rather than merely optimistic or pessimistic
Output Format
A ranked factor table, the selected critical uncertainties, and one narrative per scenario with a name, a resolution pattern for each critical factor, and a what-would-have-to-be-true list.
Quality Criteria
- Factors are external and specific
- Selection justified by position on both axes
- Baseline scenario present and labelled
- Alternative scenarios challenge the current strategy